Russia’s power over Belarus is in the spotlight after plane ‘hijacking’ incident

As world leaders condemned Belarus’ “hijacking” of a Ryanair flight and incarceration of an opposition activist, Russia stood firm in its support for the country. Analysts now believe that Belarus’ growing isolation from the West will benefit Moscow.

Belarus ordered a Ryanair flight carrying notable Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich to be diverted to the country’s capital, Minsk, where he was arrested. The reaction in the United States and Europe was termed by Russia as “terrible,” and the West was accused of having double standards.

“The West’s use of the word ‘shocking’ to describe the event in Belarusian airspace is shocking,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mariya Grushko said.

Russia has rapidly increased its authority and influence over Belarus, although the two nations’ leaders, President Vladimir Putin and President Alexander Lukashenko, are uneasy friends at best, and only exist because of necessity.

Russia is a strong economic and political ally as well as a source of support for Belarus, having backed Lukashenko’s rule for the past 27 years. As world leaders condemned Belarus’ “hijacking” of a Ryanair flight and incarceration of an opposition activist, Russia stood firm in its support for the country. Analysts now believe that Belarus will help Moscow. further estrangement from the West.

“I think if anyone doubted whether Lukashenko was ‘all in’ with Putin, in his power vertical/sovereign democratic model, and indeed of Belarus’s deeper integration into Russia, then I think this sends a resounding answer … there are no bridges left standing back to the West, and he is willing to surrender Belarus’ sovereignty to save his own skin.”

According to those who follow Russia closely, Putin would have known about the “hijacking” episode even if he had not sanctioned it. ”“Lukashenko is now utterly dependent on Putin for his survival in power and would not have jeopardised his relationship with the Kremlin by executing such a reckless act unless he had first been given the go light by Putin,” Timothy Ash, senior emerging markets analyst at Bluebay Asset Management, said on Monday.
Last September, Putin increased his clout on Lukashenko by giving Belarus a $1.5 billion loan and agreeing to increase commerce. Following weeks of large rallies demanding Lukashenko’s resignation, the act was generally seen as a show of support for him after he won an election which the opposition said was rigged. Lukashenko denied this allegation.

Indeed, Emre Peker, Europe director at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, stated on Monday that the Ryanair jet “hijacking” episode was likely to help Russia by bringing Belarus closer to it, a viewpoint mirrored elsewhere.

The entire affair, according to Matthew Sherwood, senior Europe analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit, sheds insight on “how little sanctions are impacting domestic politics in Belarus.”