PM Modi and President Xi Jinping Hold Diplomatic Talks: Are Chinese Products and Diplomacy Trustworthy?

The relationship between India and China is a cornerstone of geopolitical dynamics in Asia, with far-reaching global implications. On October 23, 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and President Xi Jinping of China met on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia. Their discussions, held amid growing geopolitical tensions, were aimed at resolving lingering issues, including the 2020 border conflict, and charting a path toward strategic collaboration.

As the world continues to evolve into a more complex, multipolar system, the question of China’s reliability as a diplomatic partner remains at the forefront. Similar to how Chinese products have often been called into question, so too has Chinese diplomacy become the subject of skepticism. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the Modi-Xi diplomatic talks, the trustworthiness of Chinese diplomacy, and the global implications of Sino-Indian relations.

Background: Modi-Xi Meeting at BRICS 2024

The meeting between PM Modi and President Xi was a significant diplomatic moment at a time when both countries have much at stake—economically, militarily, and diplomatically. The conversation was focused on resolving ongoing border disputes, but it also addressed the broader need for stabilizing and strengthening the bilateral relationship. With India and China representing two of the world’s largest economies and populations, their cooperation is crucial to regional peace and global prosperity.

During their talks, both leaders emphasized the importance of properly handling differences, particularly over contentious issues like border security, while also agreeing on the need to avoid letting disputes derail broader cooperation. This reflects a delicate balancing act for both nations: managing longstanding grievances while seeking common ground on areas like trade, investment, and regional security.

China’s Diplomatic Practices: Trust Issues on the Global Stage

A Pattern of Aggressiveness: Wolf Warrior Diplomacy

In recent years, Chinese diplomacy has increasingly adopted a more combative approach, often referred to as “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy. Named after a popular Chinese action film series, this strategy sees Chinese diplomats taking assertive and often confrontational stances when responding to criticisms or challenges from other nations.

This shift marks a departure from China’s traditional “quiet rise” strategy, where it sought to avoid confrontation and instead promote peaceful development. Now, China’s diplomatic approach has evolved into a much more vocal and aggressive style, particularly when it comes to defending its territorial claims or countering perceived threats to its national interests.

Several countries have raised concerns about this approach, which often leads to strained relations, especially with Western democracies. For instance, when Australia called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 in 2020, China retaliated by imposing economic sanctions on Australian exports, damaging the once-robust trade relationship between the two nations.

For India, this aggressive posture was on full display during the 2020 border skirmishes in the Galwan Valley. Despite numerous rounds of diplomatic talks and military de-escalation, the relationship has remained tense, with India increasingly wary of China’s diplomatic intentions.

Belt and Road Initiative: A Diplomatic Double-Edged Sword

One of China’s flagship diplomatic and economic projects is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious infrastructure project designed to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through a network of ports, railways, and highways. On the surface, the BRI appears to offer significant economic opportunities for participating nations, especially developing countries that struggle with infrastructure deficits.

However, the initiative has been criticized for fostering debt dependency. Many countries, particularly in Africa and South Asia, have found themselves unable to repay the loans provided by China, resulting in situations where China gains strategic leverage over key assets. Sri Lanka, for instance, was forced to hand over control of its Hambantota Port to China on a 99-year lease after failing to meet its debt obligations.

This has led to growing skepticism about China’s true intentions behind the BRI, with critics arguing that it serves more as a geopolitical tool than a genuine economic partnership. India, which has refused to join the BRI due to concerns over sovereignty and debt trap diplomacy, remains deeply cautious of China’s expanding influence in South Asia and beyond.

Border Tensions and Strategic Distrust

The 2020 border clash between India and China in the Galwan Valley was a stark reminder of the underlying tensions between the two nations. The violent confrontation, which resulted in the deaths of soldiers on both sides, brought relations to a near-breaking point. Although both countries have since engaged in multiple rounds of talks aimed at disengagement and de-escalation, the trust deficit remains palpable.

At the BRICS Summit, PM Modi and President Xi agreed that the Special Representatives on the India-China boundary question would meet at an early date to oversee the management of peace and stability in the border areas. While this is a positive development, history suggests that resolving border disputes is a long-term challenge, particularly given China’s assertive stance on territorial issues.

India’s strategic concerns are further compounded by China’s close relationship with Pakistan, India’s long-time adversary. China’s investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a critical component of the BRI, has raised alarm bells in New Delhi. The fact that parts of the CPEC run through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a territory claimed by India, only adds to the complexity of Sino-Indian relations.

Economic Cooperation Amid Political Tensions

Trade Relations: A Delicate Balance

Despite political and military tensions, economic relations between India and China remain robust. China continues to be India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $135 billion in 2023. However, the trade imbalance heavily favors China, with India importing far more from China than it exports, leading to a significant trade deficit.

India has been making efforts to reduce this dependency on Chinese imports, particularly in sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, and telecom. Through initiatives like Make in India, the Indian government aims to boost domestic manufacturing and attract foreign investment to reduce reliance on Chinese goods. Nevertheless, China remains a key supplier in critical areas such as raw materials for the pharmaceutical industry and components for the technology sector.

The talks at the BRICS Summit provided an opportunity for both countries to explore ways of enhancing economic cooperation while addressing trade imbalances. Both leaders acknowledged the importance of economic ties in stabilizing their relationship, even as strategic concerns continue to cloud the political landscape.

Technology and Security Concerns

One of the areas where India has been most cautious about China is technology. Chinese tech giants like Huawei and Xiaomi have a significant presence in the Indian market, but concerns over data privacy and national security have prompted India to take a more stringent approach to Chinese investments in its technology sector.

Following the 2020 border clash, India banned several Chinese apps, citing security concerns. The Indian government has also tightened regulations on Chinese investments in critical sectors, reflecting a growing wariness of China’s potential to use economic influence for strategic purposes.

These security concerns extend beyond India, with several Western nations, including the United States, imposing restrictions on Chinese companies like Huawei, fearing that China’s tech infrastructure could be used for espionage. This global skepticism has further complicated China’s ability to build trust as a reliable economic and diplomatic partner.

Global Perceptions of Chinese Diplomacy

Western Perspectives: A Growing Divide

In the West, particularly in the United States and Europe, there has been increasing skepticism about China’s diplomatic practices. The U.S.-China trade war, initiated under the Trump administration, was fueled by accusations of intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, and concerns about China’s growing global influence. Relations have remained strained under the Biden administration, particularly in light of China’s assertive stance on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

European nations have also become more cautious in their dealings with China. While the European Union remains a critical trading partner for China, concerns over human rights abuses in Xinjiang, the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong, and China’s aggressive foreign policy have strained relations. The European Commission’s 2020 labeling of China as both a “partner” and a “systemic rival” reflects the complexities of Europe’s relationship with China.

Asia and Africa: Strategic Partnerships with Skepticism

In Asia and Africa, China’s diplomatic and economic activities are viewed with a mix of opportunity and skepticism. Many developing nations in these regions have benefited from Chinese investments, particularly through the Belt and Road Initiative. However, as mentioned earlier, concerns over debt dependency and China’s strategic intentions have made some countries wary of becoming too entangled in Chinese-led projects.

In Southeast Asia, China’s aggressive claims in the South China Sea have led to tensions with nations like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, all of which have competing territorial claims. While these countries continue to engage with China economically, they are increasingly turning to alliances like the ASEAN bloc and partnerships with the United States to counterbalance China’s influence.

Africa, meanwhile, has emerged as a major beneficiary of Chinese investment, with Chinese companies involved in infrastructure projects across the continent. However, there are growing concerns that these investments come with long-term costs, particularly in terms of debt repayment and the potential for China to exert political influence over African governments.

Can Chinese Diplomacy Be Trusted?

A Complex and Evolving Relationship

The question of whether Chinese diplomacy can be trusted is not easily answered. China’s diplomatic practices, particularly its aggressive stance in territorial disputes and its strategic use of economic leverage, have led to widespread skepticism. However, China’s economic influence and the opportunities it offers through initiatives like the Belt and Road make it an unavoidable partner for many countries, including India.

For India, the challenge lies in navigating this complex relationship. While economic ties with China are crucial, especially in areas like trade and investment, India remains cautious about China’s long-term strategic goals. The Modi-Xi talks at the BRICS 2024 Summit reflect a desire for stability and cooperation, but the underlying trust deficit will take time and consistent effort to overcome.

Conclusion

The diplomatic talks between PM Modi and President Xi Jinping at the 16th BRICS Summit underscored the importance of strategic engagement between India and China. Both nations recognize the need for stable and amicable relations, but the trust issues that have plagued their relationship remain unresolved. As India and China continue to navigate their complex ties, the broader question of China’s reliability on the global stage will continue to shape international perceptions and policies.