The economy of India is predicted to have improved in the three months that ended in March, but economists have lowered their growth forecasts for the current quarter, which ends in June.
It comes as India battles a second wave of coronavirus epidemic that is wreaking havoc.
The gross domestic product for January to March, India’s fiscal fourth quarter, is due around noon GMT on Monday. India’s fiscal year runs from April to March the following year.
According to Reuters, experts surveyed expect 1 percent year-over-year growth in the March quarter, up from 0.4 percent in the previous quarter. Economists, on the other hand, are less optimistic about the current quarter, which ends in June.
According to Reuters, the median growth expectation for the three months between April and June is 21.6 percent, down from a previous projection of 23 percent. The median prediction for fiscal year 2022 has been reduced from a previous prediction of 10.4 percent growth to a 9.8 percent expansion.
After the United States, India is the world’s second-most afflicted country. There have been nearly 28 million instances documented, with over 329,000 fatalities.
In a Monday note, Lavanya Venkateswaran, an economist at Mizuho Bank, wrote that the expected growth rate for the March quarter “will be cold comfort for India, which has recoiled as COVID re-emergence has prompted another wave of activity pullback.”
Following the predicted setback in the current quarter, the real attention will be on how India manages to get its economy back on track in the second half of the calendar year, according to Venkateswaran.
The scarring consequences on the country’s informal economy and the banking system, which was already capital restricted and laden with under-performing assets, are of greater concern, she noted.
In India, Covid-19 infections began to rise in February, and the daily infection rate increased in April and May, peaking at almost 414,000 cases on May 7. The virus’s spread was slowed by the second wave, which led most of India’s industrial states to enact limited lockdown measures.
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