A French trader has placed a staggering $28 million bet on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election using four accounts on the Polymarket political betting platform. Polymarket, a major player in political betting, confirmed the accounts are controlled by one person, raising eyebrows as the election approaches.
The trader, identified as a French national with significant experience in finance and trading, funneled funds through a centralized crypto exchange, reportedly Kraken. Polymarket stated that they have found no evidence of market manipulation, though the massive wager has garnered attention due to its potential to influence market perceptions.
Polymarket emphasized that political betting markets, like theirs, measure event probabilities rather than public opinion, differing from traditional election polls. While polls suggest a close race between Trump and Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, the Polymarket odds show a growing gap in Trump’s favor, a shift being championed by his supporters.
The four accounts—Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—hold top positions in the pro-Trump betting pool, collectively wagering millions not just on Trump’s overall victory but also on the popular vote. While Polymarket remains banned for U.S. traders, the platform continues to attract international users, sparking controversy in the 2024 election betting scene.
The scrutiny surrounding this bet comes as political betting platforms gain prominence, with alternatives like Kalshi and Interactive Brokers entering the market after favorable legal rulings.
Polymarket concluded its statement by highlighting that the French trader has agreed not to open new accounts without notice, although the current position on Trump’s victory remains valued at $28.6 million.
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